As Bangladesh approaches the 2026 national election, the spotlight is on the country's two major political parties—the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami—and their ambitious promises to revive the economy, create jobs, and ensure social security. But here's the catch: can they deliver on these pledges amidst sluggish revenue growth and stagnant investment? This question is more critical than ever, as both parties have placed the economy at the heart of their campaigns, focusing on job creation, industrialization, and youth empowerment. Yet, the path to fulfillment is fraught with challenges, leaving many to wonder if these promises are more aspirational than achievable.
Both the BNP and Jamaat have emphasized their commitment to fostering a business-friendly environment and boosting industrial development. Jamaat-e-Islami has already outlined its economic vision at a policy summit in Dhaka, presenting its plans to foreign diplomats, economists, and civil society representatives. While these proposals have been met with cautious optimism, the devil is in the details. Economists and business leaders are asking tough questions: How realistic are these plans? How quickly can they be implemented? Where will the funding come from? And does Bangladesh have the institutional capacity to execute them?
And this is the part most people miss: Despite the grand promises, a clear roadmap remains elusive. Bangladesh's economy is currently under significant pressure, both structurally and in the short term. GDP growth has slowed to around 4-5%, far below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, inflation has stubbornly hovered around 9-10%, eroding purchasing power and raising the cost of living. Private investment, a critical driver of growth, has stagnated at 23-24% of GDP—a level deemed insufficient to support new industries and large-scale job creation.
Unemployment, particularly among the young and educated, is a growing concern. While the official rate is near 4%, informal estimates suggest much higher figures, signaling deepening stress in the labor market. Adding to the woes, Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains below 7%, and foreign debt repayments are tightening fiscal constraints on development spending. Infrastructure projects are progressing, but gas and electricity shortages, coupled with weak logistics, continue to hinder investment and production.
Here’s where it gets controversial: Against this backdrop, the feasibility of BNP and Jamaat's economic pledges is being hotly debated. The biggest challenge? Financing. With limited revenue and mounting fiscal pressures, the question of where the money will come from looms large. Economists argue that the discussion has shifted from whether the promises are appealing to whether the economic conditions, institutions, and public finances can support them.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, Additional Director (Research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), bluntly states that the visions presented by both parties currently seem unrealistic. He emphasizes the need for clarity on financing, implementation timelines, processes, and institutional strengthening. However, he also notes that if revenue collection improves, these long-term plans could become viable—and should be pursued.
Job Creation: Ambition vs. Reality
BNP has pledged to create one crore (10 million) jobs within 18 months of taking power and to introduce unemployment allowances for educated jobseekers. Jamaat-e-Islami, on the other hand, has promised skills training for one crore young people over five years and job access for 50 lakh (5 million) individuals. But here’s the reality check: Economists point out that Bangladesh’s labor market absorbs 18 to 20 lakh young people annually. Creating one crore jobs would require sustained GDP growth of 8-10%, alongside a significant surge in domestic and foreign investment.
A professor from the University of Dhaka’s economics department highlights the political appeal of these pledges but questions their feasibility without clear strategies to boost investment, industrialization, and exports. Private investment has been stuck at 22-23% of GDP for years and has weakened further recently. While some infrastructure has been built, it’s not enough to trigger a sudden investment boom, making these job promises appear overly ambitious.
Another overlooked point: Bangladesh lacks country-specific studies on the investment required per job created. Mashrur Riaz, former senior economist at the World Bank Group, notes that technological advancements make it impossible to calculate a precise investment-to-job ratio. However, analyzing annual employment creation and the GDP-to-investment ratio can provide some insights. Last year, private investment stood at 22% of GDP (roughly $110 billion), while the private sector created 12 to 13 lakh new jobs. Yet, investment in a single year doesn’t translate to immediate employment; its impact is gradual.
Social Protection: Promises vs. Fiscal Limits
Both parties have prioritized social protection in their campaigns. BNP proposes unemployment allowances, cash support through family cards, and expanded safety net programs. Jamaat promises interest-free loans, direct cash transfers for vulnerable groups, and a welfare-oriented state model. But here’s the challenge: Bangladesh currently spends Tk1.16 lakh crore annually on social protection, roughly 2% of GDP, across 130 programs. Increasing this allocation amidst high inflation and revenue constraints will be daunting.
BNP’s plan to issue family cards to four crore households would cost Tk1.2 lakh crore annually, assuming Tk2,500 per card. Towfiqul Islam Khan argues that while expanding social protection is necessary, sustainability hinges on higher revenue and subsidy reform. He stresses that 2% of GDP is insufficient for quality social security, suggesting better targeting, digital databases, and reduced leakage as solutions.
Industrialization and Energy Constraints
BNP aims to establish small and medium industries in every district, ensure uninterrupted gas and electricity supply, and reduce agricultural electricity use. Jamaat pledges to freeze gas, electricity, and water prices for industry for three years. But the reality is stark: Gas shortages, high power generation costs, and import dependence remain major hurdles. Over the past five years, the government has provided Tk2.07 lakh crore in subsidies to the power and gas sectors, with Tk63,000 crore allocated in 2024-25 alone—nearly 10% of the national budget.
Economists warn that maintaining or increasing these subsidies will further strain public finances. A CPD researcher argues that without energy and industrial sector reforms, price freezes are unsustainable. Here’s a thought-provoking question: Can Bangladesh afford to continue subsidizing energy without addressing the root causes of inefficiency?
Agriculture: Subsidy Pressure and Reform
Agriculture remains vital to Bangladesh’s economy, and both parties have prioritized it. BNP proposes agricultural cards, fair prices, canal dredging, and agro-processing, while Jamaat promises interest-free loans for small farmers. However, rising production costs, higher fertilizer prices, and irrigation expenses are burdening farmers. The government has increased agricultural subsidies, allocating Tk40,000 crore in the current budget—nearly 6% of GDP.
Economists caution that further subsidy increases will strain the national budget. Mashrur Riaz suggests that reducing subsidies is possible if middlemen’s influence is curbed and farmers receive fair prices. He emphasizes that large-scale investment and local administrative efficiency are crucial for effective canal dredging and cold storage expansion. The key takeaway: Sustainable agricultural development requires more than policy announcements—it demands market reforms, easier access to credit, and technology adoption.
ICT and Freelancing: Potential with Limits
Both parties view ICT and freelancing as future growth drivers. BNP highlights international payment gateways, while Jamaat pledges 20 lakh ICT jobs and $5 billion in exports. Experts agree the sector has potential but needs reforms in digital payments, data security, skills development, and global market access. Fahim Mashroor, CEO of Bdjobs, believes these targets are achievable with proper training, affordable technology, and incentives for advanced sectors like semiconductors.
Final Thoughts
As Bangladesh stands at this electoral crossroads, the promises of BNP and Jamaat are undeniably ambitious. However, their feasibility hinges on addressing critical challenges: financing, institutional capacity, and structural reforms. The question remains: Can these parties turn their visions into reality, or will they fall short amidst economic headwinds? The answers will shape Bangladesh’s future—and the electorate’s trust in their leaders. What do you think? Are these pledges realistic, or are they mere political rhetoric? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
